cuffed jeans? >> listen. from a guy who wears sansabelt. >> cuffed jeans. i'm encouraging every man in this country to embrace it. >> i encourage every man to think for themselves. not listen to donny. stick around for our friend chuck todd. poll position. president obama opens up a small but significant lead in our nbc news/"wall street journal" poll. could overseas outbreaks of violence hurt his standing? with more conservatives clamoring over the state of the romney campaign, what can the candidate do to push back and convince both the party opinion shapers and undecided voters that he can get this job done? plus, are republicans on the ropes in indiana? in that senate race? richard murdoch's tea party power may be fading. the opposite might be happening for the gop in connecticut where

linda mcmahon's stock is rising. two races that suddenly could decide the balance of power in the senate. we're going to dig deep into that. good morning from washington. it is wednesday, september 19th. i think we're moving in on the last couple of days of summer "officially." to our nbc news/without courage poll, our first national poll since the conventions where each candidate had had a goal -- the president to make the case that the economy is on the right track, and mitt romney to improve his personal likability and close the empathy gap. well, less than two weeks after the confetti fell in charlotte, it is clear this is no longer a tied race. president obama now holds a five-point lead over mitt romney among likely voters. he's up 50% to 45%. the largest lead he's held sis march. but the most remarkable thing we're seeing is an uptick in economic optimism, even after a bad august jobs report. 39% say the country's headed in

the right direction. that's not great, but it's the highest right track we've recorded since september 2009. 42% of people told us that they now believe the economy will get better in the next year. that's the highest level in 2 1/2 years. wayward democrats and independents are both now more optimistic about the economy than they were before the democratic convention. and on the one question where mitt romney has consistently led -- which candidate would do a better job of dealing with the economy -- the president and romney are now tied. 43%-43%. as for romney's convention goal, to improve his likability, close the empathy gas, our polls hoe it didn't work. more continue to have negative views about mitt romney, 43%, than positive views at 38%. romney's personal rating has been upside down in every poll we've conducted since august 2011. 13 straight polls.

only in the month that he officially announced in june of 2011 did he have a right side up favorable rating. but there is one yellow caution flag here for the president. the middle east crisis has taken a poll. 46% of voters disapprove of the president's handling of foreign policy, up from 40% a month ago. not since the darkest days of the tea rear square rioting have his foreign policy numbers been this low. and while this is a bad poll for mitt romney, there is one silver lining. republican voters continue to express more interest and intensity than democratic voters. 80% of republicans call themselves a nine or ten when describing their interest level in this election on a scale of one to ten. it is a nine-point advantage over democrats collectively. it is a change from four years ago and it could be a factor on election day if republicans are more motivated to vote. it can make up one, two, maybe even three points in what you see in some of these polls. this republican enthusiasm advantage though is critical and

romney can't afford for his campaign missteps to dampen that fer vvor that is in his base. it explains how aggressive he was yesterday, not just in owning his closed door comments but in pushing back on the president. cameras were allowed into romney's fund-raisers for the first time yesterday and last night in texas he pushed the line the campaign promises we'll hear from him again today on the trail and which the campaign is pushing out in a memo this morning. >> this idea that the president has of redistributing. i know there are some people in our country who want to have a government take from some to give to the others. they'd like to be the others that are on the receiving end of that. and feel that a redistribution model makes sense. >> we hear this redistribution charge first from romney on fox, and within moments, maybe a couple minutes before he went on fox, a 14-year-old audio clip from the president was leading the drudge report. timing which given the close relationship between matt drudge and romney's campaign manager, matt rhodes, did not look like a

coincidence. here's the clip from then-state senator barack obama at loyola university back in 1998. >> the trick is figuring out how do we structure government systems that pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution, because i actually believe in redistribution, at least at a certain level to make sure that everybody's got a shot. >> it is a little striking that they had to go back 14 years in the archives for the hit but it is one romney repeated on fox news as he again tried to explain his comments while still arguing his message probably won't appeal to the 47% he'd named in that infamous video. >> i'm going to get half the vote, approximately. i hope. i want to get 50.1% or more. i'm talking about a perspective of individuals who i'm not likely to get to support me. i recognize that those people who are not paying income tax are going to say, gosh, this

provision that mitt keeps talking about lowering income taxes, that's not going to be real attractive to them. >> then romney defended his comments with this line that made some conservatives wince -- again. >> but i do believe that we should have enough jobs and enough take-home pay such that people have the privilege of higher incomes that allow them to be paying taxes. i think people would like to be paying taxes. >> i think that people would like to be paying taxes. in the weekly standard this morning, john mccormick writes -- conservatives realize that the republican party is not the party of people who want to be rich. it is the party of people who want to be free. we'll delve deep near that criticism in the next hour. everything romney's done in the last 24 hours seems to be aimed at calming and reassuring the republican troops. you had the weekly standard's bill kristol kicked it off

yesterday blasting romney's quote, "arrogant and stupid" comments and writing quarterback "has there been a presidential race in modern times featuring two candidates who have done so little over their life times for our country and who have so little substance to say about the future of our country." over the course of the day, several down ticket republicans quickly distanced themselves from romney. linda mcmahon, "i disagree with governor romney's insinuation that 47% of americans believe they are victims who must depend on the government for their care." massachusetts senator scott brown -- wearily of populism in his own senate race, "that's not the way i grew the world. as someone who grew up in tough circumstances, i know that being on public assistance is not a spot that anyone wants to be in." and south carolina senator lindsey graham went off romney for his relaxes, if you will, for his relaxed schedule of public events. "he needs to be talking about the economy and not in utah. he's not going to get beat because of money. he ought to be running in ohio

and florida like he's running for governor and running in virginia like he's running for sheriff." this morning, the president's super pac has put out the first ad tied to romney's infamous video comments. >> behind these doors, mitt romney calls half the american people -- >> dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims. >> victims? behind these doors middle class families struggle and romney will make things even tougher. >> the president jumped on romney's comments in new york during an interview with the late show's david letter marn la doing his best to underline the contrast. >> i don't know what he was referring to but i can tell you this. when i won in 2008, 47% of the american people voted for john mccain. they didn't vote for me. one of the things i've learned, as president, is you represent the entire country.

i promise you, there are not a lot of people out there who think they're victims. there are not a lot of people who think they're entitled to something. what i think the majority of people, democrats and republicans, believe is that we've got some obligations to each other and there's nothing wrong with us giving each other a helping hand. >> and though romney hasn't mentioned the word "victim" since he used it in that fund-raising video, the president did last night. >> all of us say the wrong thing once in a while. that incident in 2008 where -- what i said, i immediately said i regret this, because i think it sent the wrong message to the country. so people understand i think that you're going to make mistakes on the campaign trail. what i think people want to make sure of though is that you're not writing off a big chunk of the country. >> letterman asked the president whether he has any empathy for

stumbles on the trail given his own guns and religion remark. you saw that just now. >> you had a video that was released by somebody who lives here, sort of a shadowy character, who is extremely offensive video directed at muhammad and islam. this caused great offense in much of the muslim world. but what also happened was extremists and terrorists used this as an excuse to attack a variety of our embassies, including the consulate in libya. >> that was the president. by the way, giving his most extensive remarks we've heard in the second week of the crisis in the middle east, and he did it on "the late show" there. and he had a little bit more to say. here it is. >> our first job is obviously to make sure that we're reinforcing security at these embassies,

that we're fully investigating what happened and bringing these murderers to justice. we as americans always stand on the side of democracy, we want people to have opportunity to determine their own fates and their own destinies, but the message we have to send i think to the muslim world is that we spent you to work with us to keep our people safe. >> without naming them, he addressed critics at home who say his outreach to the mideast has produced few results. >> they have been living under dictatorships and autocracies for decades and now they're going through changes. and it's going to be bumpy. it is not always going to be smooth. and sometimes it is going to be dangerous. the one thing that i have to insist to the american people is that we can't just withdraw our presence. >> most extensive comments we've heard from the president on the

middle east crisis this week. and he did so on "the late show with david letterman." paul ryan reacted to the now-infamous video of mitt romney at a florida fund-raiser last spring. he defended his running mate but called the choice of words inarticulate. >> he was obviously inarticulate in making this point. the point we're trying to make here is under the obama economy, government dependency is up and economic stagnation is up. >> you think governor romney regrets saying what he did? >> oh, i think he would have said it differently, that's for sure. but the point still stands. >> nbc's ron mott is live in danville, virginia. ron, seems that the romney campaign has a couple of goals with this visit in virginia. they've got a new ad talking about coal, talking about the way of life for coal miners in that part of virginia. but also the last time a vice presidential candidate was in danville, virginia, they made a little news. what you got? >> reporter: hey there, chuck.

good morning. i think getting back to this point about this video from this may fund-raiser, anyone expected a full-throated "i'm sorry" from mitt romney or paul ryan you're going to be disappointed. paul ryan just said, this campaign believes the larger point for americans to keep in mind are these run-away numbers behind me. this the u.s. debt clock. the governor said while he may have been able to describe his point more elegantly, paul ryan said he was inarticulate in making his point, the larger point is under this president they say more people are in poverty than have ever been in a generation. 1 out of every 7 families. more people are on food stamps an they believe they have an economic message that's going to reverse those misfortunes for a lot of americans. as far as virginia goes, this i believe -- this is the tenth visit that paul ryan will make to the commonwealth here in the five weeks since he's been tapped as mitt romney's running mate. it is clearly a state that they want to win. maybe perhaps even a state that they need to win. as you have been mentioning over the past four, five days since

our latest polling came out about the polling numbers here in virginia, ohio an florida, governor romney trails in all three of those an perhaps the map for him to get to 270 must include 2 out of 3 of those states. maybe that's why we're paying allot of attention to virginia. the point again that they want to make here is they've got a lot of energy. paul ryan talks about energy on the east coast, that they should tap into that energy because there are jobs in energy. and so we expect him to hit that har again today. as far as the last vice presidential candidate, i believe are you talking about vice president biden. yes? >> i am. i am. when vice president had the infamous "chains" remark. >> reporter: exactly. so i don't know if paul ryan's going to bring that up today but he's got a big crowd here waiting to hear what he has to say this morning, chuck. >> ron mott in danville, virginia, western part of virginia, coal country. 48 days to go. what voters are still up for grabs. up next, the undecideds or

persuadables. we'll ask our pollsters who they find are still persuadable in this late stage of the campaign. and still ahead, we'll take a deep dive into the battle for the senate. seats at play and the surprising shifts that no one really expected. but first, a look ahead at the schedules of president obama and mitt romney. the president all in d.c. today. mitt romney in an actual battleground state today. first time since friday. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. [ female announcer ] born from the naturally sweet monk fruit, something this delicious could only come from nature. now from the maker of splenda sweeteners, discover nectresse. the only 100% natural, no-calorie sweetener made from the goodness of fruit. the rich, sweet taste of sugar.

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48 days to go. mitt romney is down five points. are there any persuadable voters left? the answer is -- there are, but not many. our pollsters have identified 12% of voters who we are calling the up-for-grabs folks. these are voters who are either undecided or say they're only leaning toward obama or romney and who voted in either 2008 or 2010, and described themselves as having some high level of interest. our up-for-grab voters are 68% white, 57% married, 53% men. 42% describe themselves as moderate ideologically. these voters are disenchanted about the economy. 70% say the u.s. is on the wrong track. and 60% disapprove of the president's job performance. if forced to choose, they don't think too high of romney either.

gentlemen, good morning. peter hart, these up for grabs voters. you looked at them. billy put this chart together. you weren't impressed with them as voters. why? >> well, essentially the one thing you really leave out here is they suck lemons. i mean they are the sourest people i have -- >> really negative. >> oh, my god, beyond really negative. in neither is their favored answer and essentially a lot of these people aren't going to vote. we're talking about up for grabs people but in reality many of whom are not going to vote. if they could vote for a third party candidate, those are the people who would probably switch their self-. up for grabs, maybe. >> of their personal views of the president and mitt romney, sour. mitt romney, 21%-38%, positive and negative. president obama, 29%-46%. they are looking for anybody but these two. >> but in our country they don't

have many other serious options. what tends to happen is the vote decision is driven by two things. your feeling about the direction of the country, where 70% say it is on the wrong track, and their feelings about the president's performance which is very negative. i don't think romney will get 100% of this vote but i do think a chunk will vote. i think they're disproportionately going to break to romney. the important point is this is 12% of the electorate. in july there were 18%. in august, 14%. so they are shrinking. as they shrink, we are watching the president's definite vote slightly increase, as is romney. so it just means that kind of the available poofl voters fl or romney to catch up. there is no question that pool is shrinking. job approval, ballot test, converge. job approval 50% for the president, ballot test 50%. for romney the disapprove and his ballot test hasn't converged.

would you say this would hold if today were the election? >> i think is the president would be in the high 40s. the president's always i think going to get 47% or 58% because of the structure of his coalition. the only question we don't know is whether romney's two points above that or like a half a point -- half a point above that or two points below. because in this election, it continues to project to be very close. >> one of the things we tested, six characteristics, three on issues, three characteristic. this is where you look at the conventions and the president seemed to make more progress than mitt romney. looking out for the middle class, president has a 19-point advantage. being a good commander in chief, president remains having a seven-point advantage. dealing with medicare, ten-point advantage. dealing with taxes, a six-point advantage. of course on the economy, it was dead-even. but on this taxes question, i've had some republicans close to the romney campaign who say, hey, they think tax returns actually -- that that issue seeps in when you ask about

taxes as an issue. >> well, it is an issue. i think it's more revelation of his personality and that is, people feel that mitt romney's not open. he's not forthcoming. it is the idea of the video that we've been playing at the top of the show. it is all of this sense that i don't know him, i can't understand him and i don't relate to him. that's the problem that's facing. on the other side, all the things that we've told you during the year that bill has so accurately portrayed about the ability to get to 50%, both in job rating and in terms of vote. all of these things say voters are getting comfortable and it happens in terms of the direction of the country, the direction of the economy. all of those things are starting to play in the president's direction. >> another remarkable finding, bill -- bill clinton's fave-unfave rating. he is proving to be -- he has cross-party lines.

he's turned into a validater for the president that's a trusted validater. >> i think that's true. you can see an increase in his very positive feeling in this poll. but as i like to remind people -- because they all say, my gosh, look at senator clinton's number now as ambassador. if bill clinton were president today he would be in the same race. if hillary clinton were our president she would be in the same or worse position. so i loved an adelaide stephenson said that our statesmen are politician whose have been dead for ten years. >> he's very much alive, bill clinton. >> both of you quickly on the foreign policy number. you were both hesitant to jump on it too quickly. why? >> simply put, i think attitudes are still formulating. there's too much happening in the middle east. i don't think the public has -- >> they looked identical to our arab spring poll, if you will. april 11, right before we intervened in libya where there was just uncertainty so the voters responded with mixed feels. >> i always tell -- say foreign

policy's when american lives are lost. that's when americans tune in and care. tragically that's happen here. as a consequence it is an important story, but they also know that we are far from resolving what direction this is heading in. i think the fact the president dropped a little bit is they're kind of taking a moment of pause. i think peter and i are just very cautious that when we've had these foreign policy things, you don't predict american aet dudes until you know for sure what's going to happen. predicting what's going to happen is beyond peter and i's pay scale as pollsters. >> thank you, both. today's trivia question -- what current u.s. senator inspired by the death of his chain-smoking father, helped lead the fight to ban smoking on domestic airline flights? first correct answer gets a call on wednesday from us. [ rosa ] i'm rosa and i quit smoking with chantix.

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mitt romney is trying to close the gap among hispanic voters. he's been spending the week doing that by going after the president on immigration reform. take a listen to what the former governor had to say in an interview with telemundo. >> i think hispanic families across this country have to ask how is it candidate obama promised immigration reform in his first year he said. well, he had a democrat house and democrat senate. he didn't do so. why not? >> joining me now, california democratic congressman, house chair of the house democratic caucus. let me let you answer governor romney's question. why didn't the president get this done when he had a democratic congress? >> chuck, the answer is very simple. we did get part of it done

except republicans used procedural maneuver called the filibuster to kill the opportunity to have reform in the senate. when you get 55 senators out of 100. that's a clear majority, voting for the dream act, that's something that usually becomes law. >> but you lost democrats on that vote. you did lose democrats on that vote. >> we had 54 democrats. that's a clear majority and we could have had that on the president's desk but the republicans required 60 votes by use of the filibuster so republicans didn't have to do that and that would have become law. what we see is time and time again, republicans use procedural maneuvers to prevent legislation from getting to the president's desk to fulfill this promise. i have all the confidence in the world that president obama will get this done, whether or not he has republican support. that's why he took that different action for all those dream act kids who are today beginning to see the fruits of all their work to get through school, to get to college, to serve in the military. i think we're going to get it done and i think it will get

done bipartisanly. >> i want to show you a fox news latino poll. it is similar to other polls i've seen of hispanic voters. that is, immigration never even makes the top three of most important issues among hispanics. economy, jobs, one. health care, two. sometimes education is two. but immigration is always down the list. why is that? >> because latinos are like any other american constituency -- they are most concerned about the things they need to do for their families. you need a good job. you need to have good schools. you need to make sure that you've got decent health care. by the way, immigration is important because we're a population, a community, that has a lot of folks who have still come recently to this country. but the difference, chuck, is that immigration is personal for latinos, because we know so many of our relatives or friend or neighbors who are recent immigrants. so it's personal when we see these attacks by mitt romney against the dream act kids or when he says to individuals you should self-deport an that's how we're going to resolve our

immigration problem. it becomes very personal and that's why you see that while immigration isn't the most important issue for latinos, it certainly is front and center on our minds. >> you feel as if the president has gotten the message? there was a lot of criticism the first year that he wasn't focused on issues important to hispanics. you think that's gotten better over the last couple years? >> i think the president has learned that he can't wait for congress to act. this essentially do-nothing congress which became very bitter in its debates couldn't get anything done. the president realized it and i think that's why he took some executive action. but at the end of the day as the president said, we need congress to act to change the laws to reform our immigration system which is broken. so he's going to need congress. we need just a few decent republicans to come forward. it will get done. i think republicans more an more are beginning to realize that it really is better for us to bipartisanly deal with immigration and do the reform in a way that satisfies everyone.

>> congressman, thanks for coming on this morning. just past the opening bell, quick market rundown. becky quick? >> things are opening a little mix dad. nasdaq slightly lower and dow and s&p are slightly higher. we got some disappointing economic numbers this morning. economists looked for housing starts to increase by 2.5%. they were only up by 2.3%. that may not sound like a big miss but housing's been a key. economists say you won't see a big change in the jobs picture until you see a change in the housing. it is responsible for so many jobs in not only construction but so many of the industries that are related to that, transportation for shipping goods to those homes to things like home depot and lowe's and things that supply details to go into those homes. that's a big key. we're watching that closely. also we've been hearing from

some of the big retailers about what they plan to do this holiday season. kohl's says it will increase its holiday hiring by more than 10% over last year. target saying it is looking to hire between 80,000 and 90,000 new employees. it is a little bit below what they hired last year of 92,000. target does say that a lot of the people they hired last holiday season, maybe 30% of them ended up sticking around and staying on as full-time employees. but we watch these numbers because retailers plan -- this is based on how confident they are that it is going to be a strong holiday shopping season. a few of these little economic indicators is what we've been watching today. >> becky quick at cnbc's world head quarters, thank you.

. in today 's deep dive, we'r looking at the sift in the senate. some races are developing almost in a vacuum, if you will. another reminder that campaigns and candidates always matter more than environment. former wrestling executive linda mcmahon is trying to make connecticut one of them. in 2010 mcmahon lost after spending a whopping $50 million of her own money. blumenthal argued mcmahon made her millions by marketing sex and violence. mcmahon lost women by 20 points but now mcmahon's running neck and neck with her opponent, congressman chris murphy. up 49%-46 in one quinnipiac

poll. she only trails murphy among women by four. why? this time around mcmahon has relentlessly targeting women. running ads that play up a more softer side, even trying to rehabilitate her husband's image. >> vince and i met in church. we got married in college an we've been married 45 years. but the day before we graduated i found out i was pregnant. so there we were. no job, no insurance. baby on the way. it was daunting. >> mcmahon has also taken advantage of murphy's low name i.d. and tried to define him before he was able to get on the air. she ran ads reminding voters he's in congress. oh, and by the way, that he missed mortgage payments on his home leading to a 2007 foreclosure action. mcmahon is telling a hard-luck story of her own. >> you may not know, but before i had success in business, before i helped create hundreds of jobs here in connecticut, my husband and i had to declare bankruptcy and we lost our home.

i'm linda mcmahon. i approve this message because i know what it means to struggle. >> on monday the state democratic party tried to relaunch what would you say a non-pg video montage of wrestlers that democrats ran in the 2010 race. wwe quickly forced the content down claiming copyright infringement. but interestingly, murphy's campaign has run ads against mcmahon that look a lot more like ads targeting mitt romney. simply focused on her personal wealth. >> linda mcmahon had a plan. shift profits overseas to avoid u.s. taxes. ceo linda mcmahon took risks no middle class family would -- gambling and losing on shaky deals an shady tax shelters. mcmahon's tax plan gives her a $7 million tax cut while connecticut's middle class pays more. >> now while republicans are putting connecticut in play, democrats feeling more bullish than ever about a traditionally red state -- indiana.

after tea-party backed state treasurer ousted veteran senator richard lugar in the republican primary. democrat joe donnelly is taking on murdoch. the race is close. outside groups are now pouring money in to indiana. the national republican senatorial committee just forked over $700,000 for a week-long buy. murdoch tying donnelly to obama and trying to give him a new nickname. >> no wonder they call donnelly "obama joe." >> donnelly is knocking murdoch for tea party red meat lines like this one. >> i challenge you in article one, section eight, of the united states constitution where those so-called enumerated powers are listed. i challenge you to find words

that talk about medicare or medicaid or, yes, even social security. >> donnelly also argued he has a history of reaching across the aisle, while mourdock has explicitly said he will not. this new ad uses paul ryan against mourdock. >> my way or the highway. >> i certainly think that bipartisanship ought to consist of democrats coming to the republican point of view. >> mr. mourdock's point is any movement that comes should not come from the republicans, it should -- >> i don't agree with that. >> paul ryan tried to fix those comments from a may interview appearing at a fund-raiser in indianapolis, he also said, "look at how dysfunctional the united states senate has become. we need principled effective conservatives to help us get things done, to help us break the logjam. the way you do that is you help us by sending richard mourdock." joining me, stu rothlenburg.

campaigns matter. >> they do. >> in connecticut and indiana. >> i think people whose time frame is just the last three elections, the last six years, may forget that. in 2006, '08, and '10, swing voters behaved very much as partisans. if you were a swing voter, you started thinking in 2006 and '08 like a democrat and you voted like a democrat. in 2010, swing voters used reflective republican assumptions about the president, his performance. they voted that way. but before that, we had a lot of ticket splitting. i think you're right, candidates this year, candidates and campaigns matter much more than they did in 2006, '08 and '10. >> we're seeing in connecticut, seeing some polling in indiana, we're seeing it in north dakota. >> and massachusetts. >> absolutely. >> and then i look at a virginia where there's been a consistent number of polls that have showed george allen outperforming mitt romney. what's going on there? >> virginia's a hard state to figure out actually at the

moment. i think virginia, the state, is divided between the northern suburbs and conservative rural areas and i think the voters -- george allen is a likable guy. one of the knocks on richard mourdock is he's less than likable. he comes across as a little stiff and better. george allen is easier to like. i think you have two appealing candidates in virginia and voters at this point have not made a decision. >> do you think the presidential campaign's matter more where there are senate races in battleground states than in places, for instance, like connecticut, indiana, where the presidential campaigns are not -- >> probably. as we've seen with presidential advertising, it is very heavy only in a handful of states, eight or nine states. if you're in connecticut and there's not a lot of presidential advertising, linda mcmahon doesn't have to deal with all that. >> but if you're connie mack, you have to have mitt romney win florida. >> i think so. the same thing with josh mandel in ohio.

>> shelly berkeley in nevada. >> i think that's the case, too. some of it has do with the margin. look, president obama won massachusetts four years ago by 695,000 votes. i don't know how many votes -- how many obama votes scott brown can get but i know it is a lot easier for him if the president wins massachusetts by only a half a mall. >> let's stick with massachusetts. four polls in a row have now showed warren ahead. >> it appears to be some short-term movement to her. we've had movement back and forth in the state. i think it depends on who has what ad up and what the narrative is. these states are going to continue to move back and forth. i wouldn't assume that where we are today is where we're going to be in november for all these states. >> senate control. where is it at right now? >> a year ago i would have told you the republicans are more likely than not to win the senate. i think that's now no longer the case. we have it as a jump ball, although the republicans still have enough opportunities. they would need to win nebraska, north dakota, wisconsin,

virginia and montana. they have to pull an inside straight here. so it is harder. i think if you ask me who is more likely than not to win the senate, i'd have to say -- today i'm going to say the democrats. >> is there a viable scenario where republicans win the senate and obama wins the senate sepre? >> it is hard because of a state like virginia, or ohio. we started off talking about ticket splitting so i think it is possible but it is much harder if loses nationally by two or three or four points. >> i think we got to a lot. our political panel is next. but first, the white house soup of the day. look at this one -- this feels more like a friday soup but it feels good. it is a fall soup. cod, tomato and white bean. don't forget, you can always follow the show on facebook. you're watching "the daily rundown" only on msnbc. we'll be right back. i i had pain in my abdomen...g. it just wouldn't go away.

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more bad news for the romney campaign today. a string of swing state polling suggesting president obama has the edge in crucial battleground states. let me run through them with you. polls show president obama ahead of mitt romney in states where republicans had hoped to make some gains such as paul ryan's home state of wisconsin, team romney lagging behind six points there. florida, site of the republican national convention, president obama five-point edge. let's bring in the panel, robertrober robert, susan page, and nathan gonzalez. welcome. robert, quickly i want to start with you. you had a bit of new last night about the romney campaign

borrowing money, using -- i understand what they did, they basically used their general election funds to borrow money but it also shows you how concerned they have been about the advertising in july and august. >> it's really fascinating story in the sense that the romney campaign who we hear about their general election fund-raising is so big, they have hundreds of millions of dollars ready to go. but they were really struggling in august. they used their general election funds as collateral. just to survive until the convention because they didn't accept public financing. >> it does tell me they have a small donor issue. if they were having good small donors -- >> romney is always doing his fund-raising this week. he still has to raise some money. >> just watching his schedule, you saw lindsey graham was going stop, why are you coming from utah and in dallas, five-day gap. yes, there was a canceled event he was going to have in colorado. but when he does events, it's one a day. >> that is not what we see come-from-behind candidates do. think about the candidates who

have made big surges -- >> john mccain. remember he grabbed his luggage, on his own and said let's go. >> you got on a bus, you dove from vfw hall to vfw hall, did events from first thing in the morning to last thing at night. you also said something to the country as a whole, that you were a guy who wanted it bad, who was vigorous, who was going to fight for it, who had something to say. of course they are also trying to prepare for the debates. if he had to choose between doing well now or doing well in the debate, he'd probably choose the debate. >> you get caught up in that cycle of debate prep, that's all you could be doing. nate gonzalez, i was reading all of the conservative intellectuals writing this morning and last night, the "wall street journal" editorial page, peggy noonan, and collectively i got the sense that there is an exhaustion among conservatives. who were never rooting for romney. let's put that out there during the primaries. but they're almost exhausted from defending him. >> i think we have to relearn

that the primary didn't prove that romney was a conservative. it just proved that he won the republican primary. he had started to i think gain some traction with conservatives because he was the won who could defeat president obama. now that that's slipping away, yeah, there's some disillusionment and we are falling into this blame therigh >> blame the candidate cycle. >> a vicious cycle. >> there is no guarantee if it had been someone else they would have -- >> i have to read the weekly standard and get your reaction. he basically says the guy doesn't know how to speak conservative if you will. he says the likely problem is that mitt romney is not a conservative or at least wasn't a conservative until late in life. he is running for president as the nominee of the conservative party on a conservative platform so he has trouble defending conservative ideas and when he sells himself to conservatives he sometimes comes across as a right-wing caricature. that's pretty brutal. >> look, when i talked to folks in boston they're almost incredulous at these stories they keep reading. >> they think you should be rooting for him. >> they think you put paul ryan

on the ticket. conservatives should be happy. they don't think romney has tapped to the center in the general election. what more do they want is their attitude. >> all right. stick around. i want to talk a little more about this and the president. trivia, what current u.s. senator inspired by the death of his chain-smoking father helped lead the fight to ban smoking on domestic airline flights? the answer is senator dick durbin. if you have a trivia question you think should be on the show e-mail us at daily rundown@msnbc.com. we'll be right back. anybody else get nervous when you go on the airplane and they still have the no smoking light and you think how old is that airplane? we'll be right back. [ male announcer ] from our nation's networks... ♪ ...to our city streets... ♪ ...to skies around the world... ♪ ...northrop grumman's security solutions are invisibly at work, protecting people's lives... [ soldier ] move out! [ male announcer ] ...without their even knowing it. that's the value of performance.

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turning back to our panel, swing state poll, which always has interesting results, you guys have 48-46 the president and in the swing state, your swing state is it 12 states? >> 12 states. >> that means pennsylvania, michigan, new mexico. >> are still part of it.

here is what surprised us. three rocky weeks for mitt romney and yet just two points behind. now maybe that's changed now we came out of the field monday night. we don't catch whatever the result is of the whole 47% furor. but that strikes me as a pretty close margin at a time when clearly the advantage you would give to barack obama. >> well, and, nathan, that's the thing. even in our poll, five points is not insurmountable but because there's been such rigidity that when you see the president even pick up a point or two you think uh-oh if you're romney. >> each percentage point matters. i think as we've talked about debates will start to gain focus but we can't forget early voting. we're starting to enter this period with -- votes are going to be in the bank. even if something fundamentally different happens in the next month, it's going to be too late. those votes are already gone. >> shameless plugs. your breaking story last night, what have you got? >> i'm a noter game guy. fighting irish 3-0 bring on michigan. >> whatever. i'll see you in chicago when we embarrass you with the

hurricanes. >> 30 years later at redesigned "usa today" blue ball with a wink on it sometimes. referring to a story and a new website. the beta version is up. >> i am happy about this. the blue ball is fascinating. >> roethlisberger political report.com stay tuned. we've had the same swing states for months. i think we'll see something shifting. >> something is moving. tomorrow on the show steve israel joins us. up next chris jansing. bye-bye. get to bloggin' ♪ so hot right now d esigthneatr ♪ our ♪ sunglasses be foggin' ♪ this crowd is classic ♪ so we play 'em like rachmaninoff ♪ ♪ just hooked 'em up with score alerts ♪ ♪now we're about to set it off ♪set it off like a score alert ♪ beep beep what? ♪if you set your phone to vibrate ♪ ♪ then it might alert your button flies all the ♪ ♪ girls and the guys wanna keep that credit score ♪ ♪ high like a private jet free-credit-score-dot-com ♪ ♪ don't forget narrator: offer applies with enrollment in freecreditscore.com silverado!

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forz(power!) andiamo! andiamo! (let's go! let's go!) avanti! avanti! (keep going! keep going!) hahaha...hahahaha! you know ronny, folks who save hundreds of dollars by switching to geico sure are happy. and how happy are they jimmy? happier than christopher columbus with speedboats. that's happy! get happy. get geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. good morning. i'm chris jansing. mitt romney back on the campaign trail today and in damage control mode. but embracing the substance of his secretly recorded comments that 47% of americans don't pay taxes, play the victim, and need to get a sense of personal responsibility. the political firestorm has even some republicans raising serious questions about his campaign but he is not backing down. in fact, he is using his